The weird place of expertise in our culture of demagoguery

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While I was working on demagoguery, I was continually puzzled by the problem of anti-intellectualism. The problem matters because, too often, we characterize demagoguery in ways that we would never recognize if we’re getting suckered by it. We tell ourselves that demagogues are frauds, dishonest, and manipulative, but our leaders and pundits are sincere, truthful, and authentic. Sure they have to lie sometimes, but they aren’t lying out of a place of dishonesty–it’s out of sincere concern, it’s necessary, and they’re basically truthful. Supporters of even the most notorious demagogues believed that they weren’t supporting demagoguery because they believed that Hitler, Theodore Bilbo, Fidel Castro, Joseph McCarthy, Cleon were sincere, truthful, and authentic.

In general, I think it makes more sense to emphasize the culture of demagoguery, since the people we identify as demagogues were only able to come to power because the culture rewards demagoguery.

Demagoguery says that we don’t really face complicated issues of policy deliberation in a community of divergent and conflicting values, goals, and needs about issues that don’t have perfect answers. It says that things just look complicated—they’re actually very simple. We just have to commit to the obvious solution; that is, the solution that is obvious to our side.

That insistence on the solution being obvious, on disagreement and deliberation as unmanly dithering, can look like anti-intellectualism since it means the rejection of the kind of nuance and uncertainty generally considered central to science or research. But I’m not sure it’s useful to call it anti-intellectualism, since people rarely think of themselves as anti-intellectual. Like emphasizing the honesty/dishonesty of demagogues, talking about the anti-intellectualism of demagoguery means we won’t identify our own demagoguery.

It’s true that demagoguery often relies on rejecting experts as “eggheads” or, in Limbaugh’s phrase, “the liberal elite.” That quality of anti-elitism often means that scholars characterize demagoguery as a kind of populism (e.g., Reinhard Luthin). But lots of populism isn’t demagogic, and rhetoric in a democracy is of course going to attack some elite group–the super-rich, the military-industrial complex, Fat Cat Bankers. After all, major changes will be to disadvantage of someone.

In addition, we don’t like to see ourselves as crushing some weak group; we like the David and Goliath narrative. The narrative of the spunky underdog fighting a massive power is so mobilizing that it’s often used under ridiculous circumstances. To condemn populism, therefore, just condemns rhetoric.[1]

As Aristotle pointed out, the elite can engage in demagoguery. Earl Warren’s demagoguery regarding “the Japanese” was directed toward Congressional representatives, and he was presenting himself as an expert summarizing the expert judgment of others. Harry Laughlin’s demagogic testimony before Congress regarding the supposed criminality and mental incapacity of various “races” was expert testimony–experts can be full of shit, as he was.[2] I think there is a different way of estimating expertise, but I’ll get to that in a bit.

At one point, I started to think that demagoguery simplifies complicated situations, and I still think that’s more or less true, but in a deceptively complicated way. Demagoguery can have very complicated narratives behind them, so complicated that they’re impossible to follow (because they don’t actually make sense). QAnon, 9/11 conspiracies, Protocols of the Elders of Zion, conspiracy theories about Sandy Hook–they’re the narrative equivalent of an Escher drawing (conclusions are used as evidence for conclusions that are used as evidence for the first conclusions).

They’re often complicated narratives, in that they might have a lot of details and data, but they’re in service of a simple point about which one is supposed to feel certain: the out-group is bad, we are threatened with extermination[3], and any action we take against them is justified because they’re already doing worse or they intend to. So, the overall narrative is simple: we are good; they are evil.

Or, perhaps more accurately, the overall narrative is clear and provides us with certainty. Demagoguery equates certainty with expertise. Experts are certain; demagoguery doesn’t reject expertise, then, let alone precision, but it does reject any “expert” opinion that talks in terms of likelihood. Demagoguery relies on the binary of certain/clueless.

Thus, in a demagogic culture, certainty (sometimes framed as “decisiveness”) is seen as real expertise, the kind of expertise that matters.

Demagoguery tends to favor the notion of “universal genius”–the idea that judgment is a skill that applies across disciplines. So, someone with “good judgment” can see the truth in a situation even if they aren’t very knowledgeable. “Good judgment” is (in this model) not discipline specific (so someone with a PhD in mechanical engineering might be cited as an expert about evolution because he’s a “scientist”).

What I’m saying is that there are five qualities that contribute to demagoguery that we’re tempted to call “anti-intellectualism:” 1) the rejection of uncertainty; 2) the related rejection of deliberation; 3) the emphasis on narratives that are, in their end result, simple (we’re good and they’re bad); 4) faith in “universal genius;” 5) the equation of expertise with decisiveness.

Our impulse when arguing with someone who is promoting a debunked set of claims is to say “It’s been debunked by experts.” But that doesn’t work because it hasn’t been debunked by the people they consider experts. Similarly, it doesn’t help to say that they “reject facts.” They think they don’t–they think we do. (And we do, in a way–we reject data, some of which might be true.) I’m not sure how to persuade someone promoting false information that it’s false, but I’m increasingly coming to think that we’ll be running in place as long as we’re in a culture of demagoguery.

We need a conversation about certainty.



[1] I think there is a kind of populism that is toxic, and it’s the kind that Muller and Weyland each call “populism.” I think it’s more useful to call that kind of populism “populist demagoguery” or, as do Berlet and Lyons, “toxic populism.”

[2] I talk about these cases a lot more here.

[3] When I say this, many people focus on the “extermination” part, as though I’m casting doubt on whether groups sometimes face extermination. I’m not. As a side note, I’ll say that I’ve long noticed that people who live and breathe demagoguery have trouble noticing restrictive modifiers, especially if they’re left-branching or the modifier isn’t immediately obviously meaningful to them. That’s a different post, but the short version is that a person who thinks demagogically will read “Zionist Christianity is not necessarily a friend to Israel” as a claim about Christians, not a very specific kind of Christian.

Yes, unhappily, many groups face(d) extermination, but the situation isn’t zero-sum between only two groups. Something that hurt the Nazis didn’t necessarily help the Jews; Jews had potential allies among groups that were neither Jewish nor Nazi; there were, and had long been, disagreements within the Jewish communities in Europe as to how to respond to anti-semitism. Even now, it’s hard to say what would have been “the” right response because there probably wasn’t only one right response.

[2] People not engaged in demagoguery aren’t obligated to argue with every person who disagrees with them, but if we reject every opposition argument on the grounds that simply disagreeing means someone is bad, then it’s demagoguery.

Trump was wrong to advocate hydroxychloroquine

Five men falsely accused and imprisoned
Image from https://www.history.com/topics/1980s/central-park-five

Trump advocated using hydroxychloroquine; a lot of studies said it was unsafe. Now, because two of the studies that said it was unsafe have been questioned on the grounds of the motives of the people engaged in the study, many people are saying that Trump was right after all, and that shows that people who criticized Trump were wrong. I’ll begin by saying that I think it’s possible that hydroxychloroquine is a good choice in treating COVID—studies are all over the place, and I don’t have the expertise to assess treatment choices. But, even if all the experts and researchers end up deciding that it is a good treatment, Trump was wrong to advocate it. Because he doesn’t have the expertise to make that kind of recommendation.

The episode got polarized and factionalized quickly, and in a way that epitomizes most of what’s wrong with current American public discourse. For supporters of Trump, if it turns out that hydroxychloroquine is a valid treatment, then that would be proof that his critics are factional, and their criticism of him is irrational.

First, notice that that’s projection. That defense of Trump, that reframing of a question about whether it was a responsible thing for a President to say into a referendum on whether supporters or critics of Trump are entirely right—that is factionalism. (I’m not saying that they’re the only ones who factionalize everything; as I said, this situation is typical of American public discourse.) And the argument about whether it’s responsible for a popular President with no scientific or medical expertise to give medical advice is that it’s irrational for him to be making medical recommendations.

Second, if it turns out to have been a good recommendation, that doesn’t confirm that Trump was right to make it because he could have been wrong. Part of what is at stake in this disagreement is about how knowledge works. This is hard to explain, but what I mean is that, for some people, the world is a stable place that can be known, directly, by anyone with good judgment. A person with good judgment can, with no training or expertise, look at any situation and see the truth. That fantasy of judgment that transcends fields is often called “universal genius,” and it’s an important part of the myth of charismatic leadership.

For followers who are in a “charismatic leadership” relationship with Trump, the issue of hydroxychloroquine is a referendum on whether Trump has that “universal genius”—for them, if it turns out that it is a good treatment, then that is proof that is a person with that kind of untrained and yet universally valid insight.

Except it isn’t a referendum on whether he has universal genius. Because if it turns out to be an unwise treatment, his followers won’t abandon that belief and his insight. He’s already been wrong about lots of things, including whether hydroxychloroquine has harmful side effects. One of the more important midjudgments on his part, particularly relevant right now, was his calling for the execution of five innocent men. So, Trump doesn’t have universal genius (no one does), but that isn’t really my point. The important point is that, for people who believe in “universal genius” or information-free insight, it is a belief that can be proven, but not disproven.

It’s irrational.

“Universal genius” is supported, I’m saying, through a form of “survivorship bias”—a cognitive bias in which only the survivors are noticed. It happens in popular advice on success and business a lot. An article might look at “what the richest people know about success” or “how the most successful people manage their time.” Looking at what the successful people—the survivors—have in common doesn’t mean we can infer what caused them to be successful; they might simply have been lucky. Nassim Taleb has a nice analogy for this kind of bias. If a thousand people play Russian roulette, some (very small) number of people will manage to pull the trigger five times without harm. Interviewing those people to see what strategy they shared will not get us good information about how to win at Russian roulette.

If we only look at the time that a person happened to be right, then we can believe that a person has this extraordinary insight. And that’s what happens with arguments about police violence.

I was very puzzled after the Trayvon Martin murder because defenders of the killing said it was a justified shooting, since Trayvon Martin had texts describing himself as “gangsta”—a fact that George Zimmerman didn’t know. I kept trying to point out to people that playing a tough guy in texts does not carry the death penalty, and Zimmerman didn’t know any of that anyway, so Zimmerman’s shooting was racially motivated and reckless at best. He had no evidence for shooting Martin. Eventually, I came to understand that they saw the information about Martin that Zimmerman didn’t have as proof that Martin was a bad person, and they believed that George Zimmerman saw the signs. Zimmerman, they believed, had made an information-free judgment because of a kind of “bad guy” detector—an ability to read the signs of badness.

If pundits and reporters can turn up negative information about the victim—information the shooter didn’t have—then a lot of people will perceive the shooting as oddly retroactively justified. If the victim can be framed as a bad person, then they “deserved” getting shot, a desert that the shooter magically perceived via signs (rather than evidence).

This, like the issue of Trump and hydroxychloroquine, is a belief that can be proven, but not disproven. People who want to justify police violence look for information that the victim was a bad person and therefore deserved it, information that the police officer didn’t have at the time. And information about crimes that don’t have the death penalty attached. The officer, they believe, saw the signs.

The signs aren’t universally valid—that Zimmerman has a more problematic record than Martin isn’t retroactively proof that Zimmerman was the bad guy. The signs only point one way.

There isn’t “universal genius.” There isn’t information-free extraordinary insight. There is, however, confirmation bias.






The Chosen One

I used to have a colleague who got all of his information from Fox News. Whenever we got into a political disagreement (which wasn’t frequent), he would make some claim to me, and I would show it was wrong. It never changed his reliance on Fox. This isn’t just an issue with Fox—I have the same exchange with people who repeat things from Raw Story, various youtube channels, Mother Jones, all sorts of dodgy sites about nutrition, their fanatical Facebook group, and so many others.

What’s striking about all these cases is that, even in cases when they get shown that their source of information has lied to them, they don’t abandon the source.

They don’t abandon the source because they are engaged in motivated reasoning, in which they begin with beliefs, and then look for data that supports those beliefs. Motivated reasoning is our fallback way of reasoning; it’s deeply embedded even in how we perceive. And so the issue is what is our motivation: we might be motivated to believe that our in-group is good and the out-group is bad, and then we only notice and value data that supports those two beliefs (and engage in motivism when necessary).

That’s what’s happening with Trump’s saying that “he is the chosen one.”

He’s talking about the trade war with China, and, at a certain point, he looks up at the sky and says, “I am the chosen one.”

What did he mean?

He might have meant that he thinks he is the Second Coming of Jesus, the King of Israel, and actually God. While there are people who say Trump is chosen by God to be President, the people who argue that’s what he was claiming (especially in light of his retweeting someone making that claim) are on very shaky ground. I think that’s the least reasonable reading of what he was doing.

Others argue that he is just a troll, and they mean that as a compliment. He’s engaged in a trade war, they argue, that has merit (especially given China’s long violation of basic principles regarding intellectual property, which he mentions). Trump’s saying he’s the chosen one, and looking to the sky is just good TV, as he knows it will make “the libs” foam at the mouth. I suspect that’s true.

Let’s assume that’s the right reading—that Trump was just engaged in good TV, and doesn’t think he’s God–that still doesn’t make what he did okay. What he said is that all the other Presidents have screwed it up, and he sees himself as the only President since Nixon to have the right relationship to China. I don’t think he really thinks he’s the Second Coming, but I do think he believes (as do many of his followers) that he is the only one to get it right. That’s call the fallacy of “universal genius.” It’s arrogant. Either he believes that–that he is the only person to get it right since Nixon opened relations with China–or he’s lying.

Great TV happens when you make extreme claims. So, perhaps, Trump was lying, and he doesn’t think he’s getting a better deal. That should trouble his supporters, since it means he isn’t really engaged in arguing with anyone who disagrees with him.

I think he meant it. I think everything about Trump says he sees himself as a universal genius who is the only one who knows the right answer, and who gets great deals through brinksmanship. He meant what he said when he presented himself as the only President who could get a good deal with China. Better than Reagan, better than Bush. He thinks he can reject what everyone else recommends as a good strategy in favor of his gut instinct. That strikes me as arrogant.

I mentioned a colleague who only got his information from Fox, Limbaugh, and various other right-wing sources, and I mentioned that his information was always wrong. One of our disagreements involved whether Obama had claimed to have ended global warming. My colleague said he had, and I sent my colleague the clip in question, and even he had to admit Obama had said no such thing. “But,” this colleague said, “he was arrogant.”

There are two ways to think about that response. One is that my colleague cares about the arrogance of political figures and would be offended by any arrogant political figure. The second is that he was engaged in motivated reasoning, and just needed to find some reason to continue to think what Obama said was bad; he only objects to arrogance if it’s out-group.

He supports Trump.

So, he doesn’t care about arrogance. He never cared about arrogance. He was just looking for reasons to support his hate of Obama.

Our political world is really just that bitch eating crackers like she owns the place.

Personally, I think Trump even making a joke that he is the Chosen One is blasphemy, especially considering the earlier tweets, but I don’t think he actually believes he’s God. It’s still blasphemy, though. I think interpreting him as saying he thinks he’s God is just that bitch eating crackers; so was my colleague’s perpetual outrage about everything Obama did (including arguing that Michelle Obama dishonored the position of First Lady by wearing a sleeveless dress, but he had no issues with Melania).

There are two ways we get ourselves out of the bitch eating crackers world of politics: when we hear the call of the pleasures of outrage about some out-group political figure, we can ask ourselves whether we would be equally outraged were it an in-group political figure.

If not, if we would find explanations, rationalizations, exceptions for an in-group member who did the same thing, then we are not outraged on principle about the behavior. We’re just hating on the out-group. We’re just settling deep in the pleasures of outrage.

Second, we can ask whether we are getting information from sources that would tell us if the out-group behavior wasn’t that bad or that there are plenty of in-group members engaged in the same behavior. If we only get information from sources that tell us how awful the out-group is, or inoculates us against their arguments, then we’re still not actually engaged in reasonable assessment of our political options, but just rolling around in our outrage about Them.

We can work ourselves into a foaming sweat as to whether Trump sees himself as God, or whether libs are idiots for thinking he did.

Or, perhaps, could we argue about Trump’s trade war with China?